Thursday, April 25, 2024

Client Visits - Risk



 In determining risk and business opportunity there are occasions when visiting clients may be crucial to the initial decision and ongoing relationship. They can indeed create and shape the nature of the relationship and incubate an environment which stimulates business growth. They also allow you as the supplier some influence in the direction your client takes to ensure continued business on open terms and reciprocal growth opportunities.


Visiting clients is crucial to understanding the people and corporate structure behind the numbers and risk ratings provided by business information agencies or indeed credit insurers. 


The initial visit will generally be more comprehensive while subsequent visits and on-going dialogue will follow a simpler pattern of updating data previously held. 


Businesses should be fully researched before a visit but it is vital that this research does not hinder or unduly influence a decision. If research suggests there may be a problem in supporting the business, set this aside until after the visit. Similarly, if research data suggest the business is good, do not cut corners and determine it an opportunity; data gleaned should simply be noted and only considered in the decision process once a visit has taken place. By all means however, prepare questions arising from research undertaken.

Financial analysis remains a key factor in determining risk but do not do not allow this to cloud or obstruct a wider view of the business and it’s potential for profit and sales opportunity.


I found it useful in my working life to create a template of sorts in preparation of client visit reports which allowed me to question or probe much of the data already researched and obtained.


Standard data 


  • Date of the meeting
  • Reason for the meeting
  • Attendees and location


Background data 


  • Directors and their background
  • Formation of the company
  • Nature of business
  • Business Report
  • Associated companies and group structure
  • Significant changes since formation
  • Specialisation (product and/or services)
  • Sales structure and marketing
  • Number of employees
  • Payment history and credit line movement
  • Annual YTD and cumulative sales to the client
  • Gross margin yield and terms applied


Property and location – to include the following


  • Description and approximate size
  • Location 
  • General appearance
  • Owned or leased and length of lease if applicable if mortgaged, valuation and mortgage value
  • Company vehicles, leased or owned
  • Other locations or sites owned or operated through



Assets – Current


  • Credit management structure
  • Nature and type of clients
  • Terms offered
  • Significant clients that may account for more than 10% of Sales or receivables debt
  • Associated trade or debt
  • Bad debt history
  • Explanation of other debtors 
  • Receivables ageing (not necessarily a full listing)
  • Inventory control and operating software system employed
  • Depreciation policy



Liabilities – Current and Long term


  • Principal suppliers and terms offered
  • Explanation of other liabilities
  • Associated liabilities or directors loans


Financing 


  • Initial financing and equity position
  • Bank overdrafts and security granted
  • Receivables financing – nature, type, cost and maximum availability
  • Asset financing
  • Directors’ loans
  • Credit Insurance
  • Mortgages and legal charges
  • Associated or Group company guarantees
  • Finance leasing
  • Future plans



General Information


  • Audited accounts and latest management data
  • Financial analysis of the above
  • Business plans
  • Projections and forecasts
  • Growth financing
  • Comparators
  • Industry sector knowledge
  • Management quality
  • Drive and direction
  • Confidentiality


Observation and Conclusion


In completing the visit, set aside the required time to draft a report and review much of the data gleaned from the meeting and research conducted. You will find conflict in many areas but ensure you sift through this and do not allow it influence unless you feel it is particularly critical.

Comment on all aspects of data and areas that may require follow up. Absorb all other known channel data and be bold and forthright in making your judgement. Avoid saying yes or no if you are unsure and seek a further opinion on your report.

You will not be able to obtain all the information suggested in this format but ensure you walk away with as much information as you can to make a considered opinion.


Follow up …..Do not just rely on one meeting to dictate a credit line or term review


Business reporting and information




 I’ve observed with great interest the various posts and recommendations of many in relation to risk and portfolio management. It’s abundantly clear many experienced individuals have a good grasp of requirements in either Bank lending or commercial trade credit. 

Twenty yeas ago, I came to the conclusion that use of third party data, that is to say the typical business report provided by major companies such as Dun & Bradstreet, Experian and others preceding them would become less relevant in the context of determining risk as users would demand more tailored and cost effective solutions in a context of data provision along with greater flexibility and functionality, preferably online.

The range of services offered has definitely widened but the underlying quality of data, the way in which it is presented, and the overall objectivity in terms of interpretation, remain very much the same for many.

Provision of financial data and ratios are still clinical and while some work with clients to integrate ERP data downloads giving information on payment trends, this was never a total commitment by all and nor was the data aligned to industry sectors to give it real meaning. In any event, my experiences have always been that payment on time is not necessarily an assurance of a clients standing or health; indeed, on the contrary, in the world of IT distribution, some 85% of bad debt experienced as a consequence of insolvency arose when the debt sat in the current column. In Engineering and manufacturing, it usually resided in the 90+ column. No-one at the end of the day pays their principal suppliers slowly or late and if they did, you’d know it.

What I sought for many years was a provider that would deliver a consistent approach to data; one that could demonstrate tangible research into the solution offered and which could demonstrate a really good track record of identifying both risk and opportunity.

I found this at the time with Company Watch (http://www.companywatch.net/) a business effectively set up by people who were previously at the coal-face in commercial bank lending but who felt traditional tools at their disposal, including the well known Altman Z-score rating system were not quite good enough in delivering consistent sound lending decisions.

Company Watch offered the H-Score, a comprehensively tested scoring system, a probability of distress rating, a credit rating (almost identical to that of Credit insurers) and a suggested credit guide (for those purists).

What attracted me to this service was the financial modelling facility of editing financial information; this allowed the insertion of new periods and interim financial information (thereby creating new scores at the press of a button) and also the creation of “what if” scenarios. Add a comprehensive and limitless portfolio management system, emails updates and the usual ability to obtain any UK filed information or that of global publicly quoted businesses and I had found my “nirvana”.  The systems functionality alone was worth the annual licence fee and I had absolutely no hesitation in recommending Company Watch to anyone who is serious about portfolio management as a tool to manage risk and note growth opportunity.

Technology however, moves on, as does increasing competition and now everyone is yelling about AI and full integration into ERP systems. We now also see within the UK effectively free financial and company information provided by Companies House via the Beta Gateway. This, in my view, should further focus the objectives of Business Information Providers in delivering real value-add beyond traditional business reports or dashboard styles of the past.   


Managing Big deal risks


 Big Deal? - No problem, work with options.


One of the fascinations of this channel is the ability of the small business to compete with much bigger players and come out winning. The ability is clearly there and the end user has the conviction and trust in the smaller business. Surprisingly, price may not be the primary driver and the relationship and previous knowledge coupled with the special personal attention given by the smaller business wins the day.


What throws a spanner in the works is the ability of the small business to finance credit required to complete the transaction and this is frequently where many trip over; much is down to misplaced pride and inflexibility in considering the risk being asked of the supplier, (irrespective of the risk quality of the end user) and let’s be frank, Supplier risk is with the Reseller. 


Everyone likes to see revenue through their books and this is understandable but with no ability to obtain the level of credit to manage big deals, smaller Resellers simply must show understanding of risk and be willing to consider working with Suppliers to close the deal fully.


Debt assignment of those special one-off large deals is not like having a tooth pulled out without anaesthetic. It’s no different a process to going to a bank to ask for an overdraft or an invoice discounter or factor to finance accounts receivable. If a business is willing to grant a legal charge in these circumstances, what on earth is the problem is granting a Supplier the same privilege; indeed in the case of a Supplier, the charge is limited in terms of receivable debt and time period to simply that one specified debt, they are in other words satisfied once the end user pays and no longer apply.


There are occasions where prior Charge holders have to be notified and where waivers must be obtained in order to secure such one off debt assignments but quite why there should be a stigma attached to this in the mind of the Reseller is questionable. The supplier does all the work; Should Charges be evident, they obtain prior waivers directly, prepare and file the relevant charge documents and pay the Companies House fee applicable. They are even willing to assist in showing the Charge satisfied when the deal is done.


If there is a requirement for the Reseller invoice to carry an endorsement to the effect the debt and invoice is assigned to a chosen supplier (and this is not always the case), and that payment is to be made to a nominated bank account, it is no different to the requirement insisted upon by Factors and Invoice discounters.


Distributors provide enormous amounts of finance credit, far in excess of anything banks and other financial institutions release and it must be understood that occasionally, where the situation demands it, an equal measure of security is required, albeit much shorter term.


It’s a great way to finance big deals when there is no other finance option available and can actually help to increase the value and amount of open credit a supplier can provide once such deals have been done, without security. It also establishes a working relationship and practice that can be repeated at any time in the future, giving small businesses the comfort of knowing they can do these deals and their clients, the knowledge they can trust the Reseller to deliver.

Maplin's rise and fall.




A story of M, a failed retailer.

No, this is not about Mcdonald’s but Maplin Electronics Ltd, a once engaging and highly profitable business that hit a brick wall in 2018. Much has been written about its core strengths and weaknesses. Wickipedia history provides a reasonable narrative of its story of life, minus however much of the nitty gritty stuff on performance and debt and the cycle of business sale, investment and resale. It is indeed this cycle that precipitated its collapse.

Statistics show that a large percentage of failed Retail businesses were backed by Private Equity of Venture Capital and the Technology Industry is no exception. Quite simply, with outrageous valuations and prices paid comes the saddling of huge business debt at often punitive interest rate which pretty quickly or immediately wipes out profit generation. Maplin Electronics is a classic case.

It was in the early part of the 1997 when I was approached by Sales to see what I could do in terms of increasing open credit terms offered to Maplin. We at that time had possibly one of the best Retail salesmen I’ve ever come across; he not only got right up close to the client but worked extremely hard with vendors in terms of support and had a terrific sense of responsibility in fully understanding credit risk. He had worked closely with me on many earlier occasions with different clients and in those days, sales remuneration was commission based with claw-back on slow payment or total default.

Credit Insurance, even in those days was sparse and restricted, the result of a balance sheet already bearing the weight of an initial investment by Brown Shipley Development Capital in 1990 when turnover was around 12m and gross profit was 3.2m. The investment came in to fund growth and expansion, relocating a distribution centre.

It was in 1997 that I first visited, my aim being to find out all that I could about the business and its performance. From a gross profit perspective, Maplin was an incredibly profitable business, a result perhaps of its broad appeal to a mix of different clients and its range of products, sourced and supplied via separate operations in the Far East. It did have the right attitude in terms of store locations, small but well manned and stocked retail premises in small towns and selective local borough shopping centres.  The downside from a credit risk perspective was that given Maplin were a cash business, rarely offering credit to its own clients, it did not make sense to extend high value credit when interest levels paid and debt were eating away at profit generation. Banking covenants were in place at the time, one of which demanded that gross profit should remain above 50%.

Controls were excellent however, costs and stock holding were being managed, banking covenants were being met and above all else, growth was clearly evident with new store locations.

In 1999, Compart Plc made an offer and acquired the shares of Saltire Plc, the then holding company of Maplin Electronics. At this time, sales had increased to 45m with gross profit of 23m. Some 60% of revenue was delivered through its store locations. It was at this point that Maplin Electronics (Holdings) Ltd came to being. 

In 2001, Graphite Capital led a 41m Management Buyout .The consolidated balance sheet was subsequently hit with intangible assets of 27.6m and long term loans of 39m and by 2003, sales reached 99m with gross profit of 50m, and operating profit of 15m, stores accounting for over 80% of sales. In that year too, some 5m of equity dividends were paid along with 13m of preference dividends. 


In 2004, Graphite sold 67% of the business to Montague Private Equity for the quite stunning sum of 244m generating a return multiple of 9.5 times cost and IRR over 120%. Montague paid in excess of 16 times earnings, a quit astonishing valuation. Graphite therefore, did exceptionally well, a quick in and out in three years with a nice wedge of money but the rot for Maplin began thereafter with cripplingly unsustainable debt and accrued interest. 

Year end 2005 saw sales of 120m, gross profit of 58m and given Montague’s investment, a balance sheet now saddled with intangible assets of 235m and debt including bank loans, subordinated bank loans and accrued interest on shareholder loan notes of 262m. This quite frankly scared suppliers trading on open credit witless and insurers began to limit or reduce cover granted once more. I opted to offer early settlement discounts in order to keep exposure to manageable levels with a weekly cycle of payment.

While revenue increased each year, the growing burden of interest payment, especially those accruing and not payable till exit began to take a heavy toll with increasing operating losses recorded.

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Those who argue accrued interest on loan notes is only payable on exit fundamentally fail to see the damage done to business competitiveness, profitability and its effect, where exit does not arise over the expected period. This type of thing cripples business credit ratings, insurance cover and the provision of credit, all of which lead to certain failure.

 

Something had to give; the business could not sustain this level of debt and increasing losses decimating the balance sheet. Expansion of stores over time brought with it increased cost and certainly not all stores operated successfully. 


Indeed, in the late nineties it had moved to opening some large out of town stores, quite out of sync with its traditional retail space. I noted a large store on the Bath Road in Reading in 2001. I visited it twice in a six month spell and found it generally lacking in footfall and far too clinical.

Given a need to retain gross profit above 50% and stay the right side of banking covenants, it began in later years to be less competitive in both price and availability of product. Its online sales suffered even more.  It was in essence in a downward spiral or death spin and what happened in the extended 15 month year to March 2014 was temporary relief, a heavy dose of morphine to lessen the pain and window dress the business to attract a buyer. The business was forced to address the parlous nature of the balance sheet. 


2014 Results showed the following-


Sales 269m

Gross Profit 135m

Operating Loss 86m

Interest Payments 92m

Loss for the year 181m

Intangible Assets 40m

Shareholder Loan Notes 137m

Accrued Interest on Shareholder Loan Notes 10m


A large chunk of the loss in this year was a write down in impairment of goodwill (intangibles) of 85m.

Some 442.3m of accrued interest on shareholder loan notes at 16.5% compound, were capitalised through the issuance of ‘C’ preference shares.

The consolidated balance sheet still however reflected a carry forward loss position of 500m. Interestingly too, adjusted EBITDA fell by more than 50% in the last three years of Montague’s tenure.

The sale to Rutland Partners LLP was perhaps a last throw of the dice to limit the damage given the price paid for the business, loan restructure and amortisation of goodwill. 


The deal was financed through loan notes of 72.2m and intra group funding of 16.8m. The total enterprise value of the business was 89m. After settlement of debt, the consideration paid was just 14.7m.

In its first year results however, despite a bullish CEO statement, the cycle began to be repeated. Interest accruing on the 72.2m of acquired loan note debt began to take its toll once again as did a rising headcount and excessive increased cost.


Under Rutland’s ownership, the following results were achieved:-

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What we see are losses in each successive year, considerable increase in cost and a repetition, albeit on a smaller scale, of debt and accrued interest shattering minimal operating profit: in just three years, the business racked up losses of 33m.

Maplin could and should have done better with online sales which at their peak in 2017 were still only 15% of total sales but the onerous debt position and covenant demands eroded its earlier competitive enough edge. Maplin, in its final years, was far too expensive to go to for product, had lost its mojo in terms of customer service and product range, faced rising costs and suffocated under punitive debt and interest. 

It’s quite something that a retail business with extremely high gross margins, successful in early years and knew exactly where its strengths lay, should succumb in such an ignoble way. Much has been written about its early success, why this was and what went wrong but the fact remains, where there is repeat Private Equity or Venture Capital interest, or when ridiculous valuations are met, ignominious failure is so often the result, especially in Retail, where the likes of Toy’s r Us’ is another classic example. 

It’s not just Retail however, so many buy and build strategies, repeat MBO’s and successive Private Equity or Venture Capital investments continue to saddle businesses with unsustainable debt levels. 

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